A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
